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Market Update: Nvidia Crushes Earnings
Nvidia’s latest quarter was another reminder that the AI boom is still very real.
Revenue was $96.2 billion in Q2. That is more than $1 billion per day. And to put things into perspective, Nvidia now makes more than 3x as much revenue in a single quarter as it made in the entire fiscal year 2022.

But the profit growth is even more insane. Operating income reached $63.7 billion, up $10.2 billion from the previous quarter. That increase alone is bigger than the $10 billion Nvidia made in operating profit during all of fiscal 2022. And it’s happening at a much bigger scale than before.

Data center revenue came in at around $89 billion, up more than 100% from a year ago. It’s pretty obvious now that almost all of Nvidia’s business is now tied to AI infrastructure.

And to top it off, Nvidia also guided for $108 billion in revenue next quarter. What makes that even more interesting is that Nvidia is assuming basically no data center compute revenue from China in that guidance.

So China could still add upside. Even relatively small H200 shipments can move the numbers. If Nvidia sells around 20,000 H200 chips at roughly $30,000 each, that is already about $600 million in revenue.
Even with zero China business, Nvidia is still expected to generate $412 billion in revenue in 2026, $718 billion in 2027, and nearly $1 trillion in 2028. If those estimates come close to reality, we are watching one of the fastest expansions of earnings power ever recorded. No other company in history has combined this level of growth, margins, pricing power, and market dominance at this scale.

And even after this incredible growth over the last few years, Nvidia is trading at its lowest forward PE in over 10 years. The last time was in May 2016 and we all know what happened since then.

But what’s even more important is that Nvidia is still supply constraint. Jensen said customer forecasts suggest demand could support around 100% growth next year IF they had enough supply. That’s why they expect closer to 70% growth because it simply cannot keep up with demand.
Demand is still not a problem right now. Unsurprisingly, supply continued to be the key issue. Nvidia is still trying to get enough chips, memory, packaging, and other components to keep up with what customers want.
That pretty much kills every bear argument for an AI bubble, at least from the demand side.
The only slightly concerning point this quarter was gross margin. Nvidia expects margins around 74% next quarter, and management said they could fall to around 71% to 72% before improving again.
The reason for that is memory pricing. We’ve seen how steep the increases in memory prices have been especially for HBM (high-bandwidth memory). Although Nvidia has already announced price hikes across the board and can pass a lot of those higher costs on to customers, but probably not all of them right away. So, Nvidia is taking some cost pressure. That’s why margins may come down a few percentage points. Still, margins above 70% are extremely strong for a company selling hardware.
Another interesting part of the quarter was Nvidia’s supply commitments.
Those commitments jumped from around $119 billion last quarter to $279 billion. That’s a massive increase. Nvidia is basically reserving future chip capacity, memory, packaging, and other key parts of the supply chain well ahead of time. Since supply is the key issue, procuring as many resources as possible is the best antidote and gives it much better visibility into future production.
Plus, it also puts pressure on competitors. Google, Broadcom, MediaTek and other companies building custom AI chips all need many of the same things Nvidia needs. They need advanced manufacturing capacity, HBM, packaging, networking, and power.
There is only so much supply available. So if Nvidia is still growing around 70% while already locking up huge amounts of future capacity, some of the more aggressive estimates for competing AI chips may be too high.
Of course, there are still real risks.
AI spending could slow eventually. Companies could build too much capacity. Nvidia’s valuation could still be too high. But the current business numbers are not confirming any of those. They are showing the opposite.
Revenue is still growing at a massive rate. Data center demand is still exploding. Customers want more chips than Nvidia can currently supply. Nvidia is spending huge amounts to secure future production. The company also returned $26 billion to shareholders in the quarter while doing all of this.
We might now be early in the AI buildout, but this is certainly not anywhere close to the end.
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