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Weekly Market Update: The Great Deleveraging
The stock market saw a wild ending to the week.
On Friday, President Trump threatened to raise tariffs on China, which sent markets sharply lower.
The S&P 500 and Dow had their worst week since August, while the Nasdaq had its worst since May. The index fell back to levels last seen on September 11, wiping out a month of gains in one day. The Nasdaq dropped 3.5%, the worst among major indexes.

But the bigger shock came from crypto.
As stocks sold off, crypto markets collapsed. It was the largest liquidation event in crypto history.
Bitcoin moved more than $20,000 in a single day. Its biggest daily swing ever - erasing $380 billion in market value within hours. That is more than the market cap of all but 25 public companies in the world.
Over 1.6 million traders were liquidated. Around $19 billion in leveraged positions were wiped out. This liquidation wave was about $17 billion larger than the February 2025 crash and 19 times larger than the collapse around FTX in 2020.
The main cause was too much leverage and too little liquidity. When the selling started, it led to a domino effect that accelerated the deleveraging.
Another lesson in why you should avoid leverage.

There is an old saying on Wall Street: Stocks take the stairs up and the elevator down. That’s exactly what we’ve seen this week. The S&P 500 is now basically back to where we started a month ago.

This crash came just two days before the third anniversary of this bull market.
The last five bull markets all lasted longer than three years. The shortest lasted five years, and the average was eight. So, it’s unlikely that this one is over just yet.

Even after Friday, the S&P 500 has stayed above its 50-day moving average for 113 straight sessions, which is the longest streak since 2011.

Bull markets don’t go up in a straight line.
So, after a 34% record gain in six months, some pullback was expected and completely normal. It’s just impossible when they happen.

Since 1930, similar six-month rallies have happened only ten times. In eight of those, the market was lower two weeks later, with an average decline of 3.5%.

If you zoom out, this doesn’t look like the end — at least for now.
Every time the market has pulled back from record highs, the S&P has been higher again within 3 to 12 months.

One of the key signals to watch going forward are the Mag7.
Only two of them, Nvidia and Google, have hit new 52-week highs in the past month. If the biggest stocks in the market continue to weaken, it will likely hurt the broader market.

Still, one tariff headline didn’t change the fundamentals. And we’ve seen these negotiation tactics before. So, this bull market still has room to run, this pullback is likely a buying opportunity.
But in the near term, we’re likely going to see a lot of volatility.
After all, the market went almost four months without a 3% pullback, one of the longest streaks on record.

On top of that, earnings season begins next week.
The next few weeks are packed and will be key for setting the tone into year-end, which is another reason to expect more volatility going forward.

Analysts expect Q3 earnings to rise about 8% year over year, with sales up around 6%. Historically, actual results beat expectations by about 8 percentage points. If that pattern holds, earnings growth could even reach around 15%.

Earnings strength is also broadening out. The U.S. remains the global leader, but small-cap earnings are beginning to show improvement alongside large caps.

Despite Friday’s chaos, the bull market remains intact.
Since the October 2022 lows, the S&P 500 is up nearly 89%. Even though this bull turns three years old now, the average bull lasts more than five years with gains of about 191%.
Pullbacks are part of every long-term uptrend.

In short, expect more volatility ahead. Trump is already starting to back off again, leading to some wild swings in crypto today. Now earnings will be key. As long as they keep improving, this bull market still has plenty of room to run. If we see a healthy correction in the coming weeks, it could be a great chance to position for year-end. Until then, it’s best to be on the cautious side and stay hyper-aware of your current risk exposure.
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