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Market Update: A Change of Character
It looks like we’re finally seeing the first real pullback with serious selling pressure in months.
Everything is being sold indiscriminately. It doesn’t matter what asset class. Gold, Silver, Crypto, Stocks. All are down today.
Today’s trigger seems to be the stronger than expected US jobs report. The US economy added far more jobs than expected, which made traders price in less chance of rate cuts and even some chance of another Fed hike. That pushed Treasury yields higher and the dollar up.
It’s a strange timeline we’re in right now where good job reports are seen as bad.
But at this point the market is using anything it can as an excuse to cool off. The recent rally has been relentless and a correction was to be expected. Unfortunately, it always comes faster and more violent than most people expect.
Now, we’re seeing a market wide de-risking. In broad de-risking, people do not only sell weak assets. They also sell what they can sell. Gold, Bitcoin, stocks, and high-momentum names.
The market is going through a change of character. One of the first warning signs was that strong earnings were no longer being rewarded. Stocks like Nvidia, Broadcom, Ciena, PlanetLabs, and CrowdStrike all had good numbers, but not good enough for a market with very high expectations.
A company can beat earnings and still sell off if the beat was not big enough. It can raise guidance and still fall if investors wanted an even bigger raise. It can show strong demand and still get sold if the stock already ran too far into the print.
If the news is good and the stock cannot go up, that tells you a lot. It means investors are using strength to reduce exposure. Good news is being treated as a chance to sell, not a reason to buy more.
Because in the short term, the market is mostly driven by 2 things:
Sentiment and earnings.
Earnings matter, of course. Fundamentals matter. Cash flow matters. Growth matters. But over shorter periods, the business usually does not change that much from one week to the next.
What changes fast is what investors are willing to pay for those fundamentals.
That is the multiple.
A company can earn the same amount of money, grow at the same rate, and have the same long-term story, but the stock can still move a lot if investors decide they want to pay 30x earnings instead of 40x earnings. That is why stocks can fall even when the business is doing fine.
And the multiple is usually driven by sentiment.
When sentiment is strong, investors become more willing to pay up. They look further into the future. They give companies credit for growth that has not fully happened yet. They forgive small mistakes.
That is how multiples expand.
But when sentiment turns, the whole process works in reverse.
This is especially true for growth stocks, AI stocks, crypto, and other long-duration assets. These assets are priced heavily on future growth. So when sentiment weakens or rates rise, investors stop paying so much for that future.
The business can still be great. But the stock can still go down. That is the painful part of multiple compression. It does not need bad news. It only needs less excitement.
This is how it plays into the current market.
Markets never move in one direction forever. We haven’t seen a real correction in quite some time, and after such a long advance, a pause or pullback is both normal and healthy. Even if it doesn’t turn into a major correction, volatility is likely to stay elevated for a while.
There are no certainties in the markets. So, being dogmatic, whether bullish or bearish, is an expensive mistake.
The world is moving faster than ever and so are the markets.
So, it’s crucial to adjust to the market conditions. This means reading what’s actually happening, not what you want to happen.
This doesn’t mean going from 100% invested to 0% or even starting to short.
Instead, it’s about finding the right balance. Adjust your portfolio between aggressiveness and defensiveness, like a dimmer switch.
If you’re always fully aggressive, you’ll get crushed when the next sell off happens. If you’re always defensive, you’ll miss the big moves. Both extremes cost you money. The sweet spot is somewhere in the middle, and it keeps shifting.
One point I cannot stress enough is to be in sync with the market environment.
And right now, the environment has shifted toward caution.
The most effective way to navigate markets like these is to step back, take a few chips off the table, lock in some profits, trim lagging positions, and reduce risk exposure. So, that’s what I’ll be doing.
This isn’t about perfectly timing the market. That’s impossible anyway. It’s about managing risk.
De-risking the portfolio helps limit drawdowns, smooth out volatility, and be able to take advantage of new opportunities. Because momentum or high growth names can easily drop 20%, 30%, or even 40% when the market corrects by just 5% to 8%. This is especially when we haven’t had a serious correction in a while.
Of course this also depends on your personal investment strategy.
If you’re a long-term investor in quality stocks, there’s really not much to do. Pullbacks are part of the process. As long as your thesis has not changed and fundamentals are improving, pullbacks are a good time to slowly add to your winners.
If you are more active and focused on high growth names opportunities, this is a time to be selective. Think about reducing exposure to your riskiest and most vulnerable positions. Trim names that have run too far too fast. Raise some cash so you have flexibility later. You do not want to be forced to sell into weakness if the market continues lower.
The key is trying to keep your losses contained and avoid holding onto it waiting for it to get back to even.
If the setup stops working, cut the loss and move on. One of the biggest mistakes is turning a trade into a long-term investment just because the stock went down. If you bought because of momentum, a breakout, or a catalyst, then you should exit when that reason disappears.
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- A Few Portfolio Changes
- Weekly Market Update: New Month, New Opportunities
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- Market Update: The Energy Shock
- Weekly Market Update: The Green Giant
- Market Update: The Crypto Bill
- How to Handle Speculative Market Periods