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Lin

Weekly Market Update: The Final Quarter

The S&P 500 ended the week with another new all-time high.

This was the best September since 2010.

It recorded its 31st new record high this year. That means the market has hit new highs in seven of the past ten months. Only March, April, and May missed out.

The Nasdaq has gone up every single month since March. This is the best winning streak since 2017, and there’s no sign that this bull market is ending any time soon. However, this streak will eventually end, so volatility should be expected.

October is also known for being the most volatile month of the year.

But what stands out this time is how broad the rally has become. The equal-weighted S&P 500 also closed at a record high. This is important because it proves the rally is not limited to just the big tech names or AI. The strength is spreading across sectors and industries.

If we zoom out, 2025 looks like a typical year for the S&P 500.

The intra-year high has been up 14%, and the low was down 19%. Despite all the volatility, that’s a normal year for the S&P 500.

Q3 turned out to be one of the best quarters in history.

The S&P 500 made 23 new all-time highs, the most in any quarter since 1998. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq had their best third quarter since 2020. Almost every sector finished in positive territory.

Now we’re entering the strongest quarter of the year.

The three-month stretch from late October to December has been the best period for the market since 1950.

That is especially true during a strong year.

When the S&P 500 is up 10% or more during the first three quarters, Q4 has been higher 14 out of the past 15 times.

Q4 has never been lower when the S&P 500 makes a new all-time high in both August and September, and with at least one in October.

The market has been incredibly strong, and so far, nothing has been able to slow it down.

Tariffs did not stop the rally. Higher yields did not stop it. A government shutdown did not stop it either. Each pullback has been met with new buying, not panic.

Corporate profits remain solid, spending is healthy, and the AI boom is driving investment. There is still plenty of liquidity in the system, and investors are not overly euphoric.

Bull markets usually end when earnings fall or the economy weakens, and that is not happening yet. The fundamentals still look good.

I expect more new all-time highs as we move toward the end of 2025. Pullbacks should be expected, but even if we see a short-term dip, it’s likely a normal correction and a buying opportunity.