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Market Update: Signs of Distribution
There isn’t much reason to get too aggressive right now.
Caution is still the best approach, and nothing has really changed on that front. The rally off the April lows was fueled almost entirely by tech, but that momentum has slowed down. The Nasdaq has basically been stuck in the same range for two months.
Even when the big names have strong days, it hasn’t moved the market much. Google is up 9%, Apple and Tesla both gained over 3% today, yet the indexes barely moved. That says a lot about where things stand at the moment. There just isn’t enough follow-through or real demand.

If anything, the opposite seems to be happening.
Over the past couple of months, down days have come with heavier volume, while up days were less convincing. Of course, one down day on increased volume isn't necessarily a problem. But if you start to see a large number of distribution days within a short amount of time, that is cause for caution.
That’s usually a sign of distribution: Institutions reducing exposure instead of adding. It doesn’t necessarily mean a major correction is coming, but it does show caution and a lack of buying interest.
At the same time, investors are piling into gold.
After a four-month consolidation, it broke out on massive volume and has been making new highs one after another.

So for now, as long as we’re stuck in this sideways consolidation, it’s mostly a waiting game. Especially since September has the reputation of being the worst month of the year, and that has been true for the last 70 years.

Either way, opportunities will come, especially as we move into the fourth quarter. It pays to be prepared rather than forcing new positions when the market isn’t offering much.
Instead, focus on two priorities:
Protect your portfolio: Make sure you don’t give back too much of your profits. Keep your exposure to risk-on, momentum or growth names in check. And make sure to keep small losses from turning into big ones.
Prepare for the next uptrend: Build a watchlist of the best names. So, you know exactly what to focus on and you’re ready when a new uptrend begins. Preparation is everything.
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- How to Handle Speculative Market Periods