Bull markets don’t die overnight.

At the start of July, I expected another strong month. And that’s exactly what we got. The market has been pushing higher without pause.

We’ve been hitting one all-time high after another. That’s what strong markets do. Bull markets don’t just end all of a sudden. They usually slow down gradually before reversing.

One sign of strength: we just hit a record streak of days above the 20-day moving average. It’s the longest run since 1997. The all-time record is 101 days from 1964. Right now, we’re at 62.

What happens after such a streak?

Usually, it keeps going. Markets that stay strong for this long tend to push even higher. Momentum is powerful.

Of course, this streak will end eventually.

This rally is not just about tech or a few big names. Many sectors are doing well.

In fact, we just hit another all-time high in the equal-weighted S&P 500. Plus, 10% of S&P 500 stocks hit new 52-week highs — the most since March.

There’s no major reason to think this bull market is about to end. But that doesn’t mean it goes up in a straight line. There will be pullbacks along the way.

Now, we’re heading into the weakest season of the year. August and September are often the toughest months for stocks.

This is when markets tend to get more volatile. This is based on historical data, not a rule. Seasonality can guide expectations, but it shouldn’t be the only thing you rely on.

Volatility is due.

The VIX just dropped to a 5-month low and this is very volatility tends to pick up materially.

The S&P 500 hasn’t had a 1% move in either direction in 22 trading days. That’s the longest quiet stretch since last October. It’s been calm, but it won’t stay that way forever.

So far, earnings season has been solid. About 40% of companies in the S&P 500 have reported. Around 72% beat earnings expectations, 77% beat revenue, and 60% beat both.

The market has been positive on earnings beats but punished misses harshly. And we’re heading into the busiest stretch of earnings season.

When the market feels calm and steady, it’s easy to think everything’s fine. Stocks are up, portfolios are green, and investing feels easy.

But that’s usually when investors get overconfident and complacency creeps in.

If you’re in it long enough, you’ll go through pullbacks of 10%, 20%, even 50%. That’s normal. Drawdowns are part of the deal. And they often show up when no one’s expecting them.

This is still no reason to be bearish. I’m still convinced that we’re on the verge of a historic market rally. Just don’t get complacent.

Of course, there are always risks in the markets: Fed policy, inflation, overbought tech, tariffs, and geopolitics. Any of these could trigger a shift.

But bull markets don’t just crash out of nowhere. Though, they do take breaks. And if you’re not ready, even a normal pullback can catch you off guard.