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Weekly Market Update: Momentum Is Back
Nothing seems to be able stop this bull market.
All bad news is shrugged off. The S&P 500 keeps hitting new all-time highs. It’s the 8th all-time of the year. And all-time highs rarely come alone.

As counterintuitive as it may sound, all-time highs are generally a positive sign for the market.

Everything is up in 2025.
The current market rally is not driven by only one or two asset classes. It’s happening across many different asset classes.
Gold is up 28% and Bitcoin is up 26% so far this year. This is the first time ever that these two assets have been the top two performers in the same year.

The US semiconductor sector has hit record weightings in the market.
Chip stocks like Nvidia and TSMC are now among the world’s most valuable companies.
They fueled the dotcom bubble in 2000, and now they are powering this new bull market.
This will eventually end, but it’s unlikely to be today.

Momentum is back.
Goldman Sachs’ Non-Profitable Tech Index is up 66% since April. As mentioned in my previous post, it’s really been all about speculative stocks.

Markets are back to all-time highs.
However, many funds and large investors are still underallocated in mega-cap & tech stocks. They haven’t fully caught up with the recent rally yet. Everyone is waiting for a pullback. That’s why every little dip has been bought so far.

Seasonality is starting to become headwind. August and September are generally weaker months. It would be perfectly normal for this massive rally to take a break about now. But any material correction will likely be a good buying opportunity.

The Fear and Greed index is extended too. The last time it was this high was in March 2024 just before the pullback.

To sum it up:
Almost everything is working right now. All asset classes are up, and momentum is back. But signs of excess are starting to creep in, the odds of a pullback are rising, and earnings season can be highly volatile.
So, this isn’t the time to be overly aggressive. That’s why I haven’t been buying much lately. Most of my positions are performing well, and my main goal is to let them work. But I’m inclined to start taking some profits into strength to raise some cash, especially if we start to see some climactic moves.
Previous Updates
View All
- A Few Portfolio Changes
- Weekly Market Update: New Month, New Opportunities
- Market Update: Compute, Compute, Compute
- Weekly Market Update: The Bulls March On
- Adding Two New Positions
- Market Update: The Energy Shock
- Weekly Market Update: The Green Giant
- Market Update: The Crypto Bill
- How to Handle Speculative Market Periods
- Added Two Space Names