This has been one of the greatest market comebacks in history.

What a year.

I don’t think anyone had the slightest idea how eventful 2025 was going to be.

Back in April, the S&P 500 was down over 15% on the year, its 4th worst start ever. After a 38% rally, it’s now up 17% on the year, hitting 38 all time highs along the way, just in time for Christmas. 7000 is now a fingertip away.

This has been one of the greatest market comebacks in history.

Although 17% is a really good performance for the index, it is actually below its average up year. Of course, over the long run, the average price change across all years is about +8%, but as usual, averages tend to be deceiving. The average during up years for the S&P is actually +21% versus -13% during down years.

Even with all the hype around US stocks, this was one of the worst years for US markets relative to global markets since 2009.

On an equal weighted basis, the US ended up in the bottom group. That means many other countries did much better while everyone was focused on the same big US names. The big question now is whether we’re seeing a reversion of this trend in 2026.

* Note this is the US equal weighted index.

The biggest theme of the year was debasement.

People started worrying about money losing value. Governments are spending a lot. Debt keeps rising. Global tensions are high. So investors ran toward assets. Gold and silver exploded. Since late August, silver is up around 90%. Gold is up about 35%. That is truly historic.

That is why gold is having its best year since 1979.

Gold went first. Then silver. Then palladium. Now copper and steel stocks are moving. Aluminum might be next. 2026 could be a supercycle in commodities.

Only crypto has been standing out this year, though not in a positive way.

In fact, it is the only major asset class that is actually down so far.

Since November, net flows into both Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have turned negative and remained so. But they are starting to turn positive, which tends to happen very close to the actual bottoms.

The biggest companies kept getting bigger.

Nvidia is now the largest and most important company in the world. It became the poster child of the entire AI boom. The big lesson here is that leaders can stay…