The S&P 500 officially closed its most volatile week since April.

It made a bit of unwanted history on Thursday. On Thursday it opened up more than 1.5% and then closed down more than 1.5%. It was only the 4th time ever that the S&P 500 experienced an intraday swing of that magnitude.

And if you look at the times since 1950, there have been only 8 days where the index opened more than 1% higher but still finished red.

One month later the S&P 500 was higher in 6 of the last 7 cases. The last 3 times this happened marked the bottom.

Even Nvidia’s incredible earnings could not stop the pullback.

The numbers were off the charts. No other company on earth is growing at this scale. Jensen said it well: “AI is going everywhere, doing everything, all at once.”

AI is not hype. It is a multi trillion build out. But that does not mean it will go up in a straight line. There have already been several big drawdowns. And there will be many more. Each time the sceptics said the AI bull market was over. Each time they were wrong.

Sometimes it helps to zoom out and look at the long term chart. When you compare this to the dotcom bubble, we’re still only in the third inning. There is still room to run. And the actual big moves happen much later.

Last week the S&P 500 closed below its 50 day moving average for the first time since April 30.

That ended a 198 day uptrend. It was the fifth longest since 1950. This is why trend following matters. It keeps you safe from the worst drawdowns while still catching the big upside with zero guesswork.

So what now.

The most likely outcome is that volatility comes back. The rally since April was almost too smooth. It ran more than 40% without a simple 5% pullback. That is not normal.

We pulled back about 5.8% from the October high. Since the 2009 low we have seen 31 corrections bigger than 5%. Every single one came with scary headlines. Every single one felt like the end of the world. But the world did not end and the market made new highs each time.

Bitcoin has been crushed and is now the worst performing major asset in 2025. It is down about 36% from its all time high and even down for the year. That has never happened before. So either the rest of the market…