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Weekly Market Update: New Month, New Opportunities
This is a bull market, and it is being powered by earnings tied to arguably the most transformational technology of our time.
The S&P 500 is up nine straight weeks is in a row. It’s historic, but the most important part is what is happening underneath the surface, because this move is being backed by earnings, and in many cases, earnings are not just supporting the rally, they are accelerating it.
Prices can run ahead of fundamentals for a while, but over time stocks follow earnings, and right now earnings are exploding across the parts of the market tied to AI, chips, data centers, power, infrastructure, software, and automation. That is why this rally has been so powerful.
The strongest bull markets usually come from 2 forces working together: stronger earnings and expanding valuation multiple. AI has both.
Stocks have become tied to the broader political and economic picture. Trump recently disclosed nearly 4,000 stock trades between January and March, averaging roughly 44 trades per day, and while he is probably not sitting there placing every trade himself, it still says something important about how central equities have become to the economy, politics, household wealth, retirement accounts, business confidence, and national sentiment. Stocks are now one of the main scoreboards of the economy.
In a bull market, the biggest winners are not just the stocks with the best stories. They are the companies where the story turns into earnings. And right now, that is exactly what is happening.

The S&P 500 has already made 21 new all-time highs in 2026, and we are only through late May.
For context, 2024 produced 57 new all-time highs, one of the strongest years in recent memory, and with 7 months still left in 2026, this year is already on a pace that deserves attention.
Of course, new highs can make investors uncomfortable because they feel expensive, and emotionally difficult to buy, but history teaches a simple lesson: strong markets often make many new highs before they are done.

Technology remains the main engine of this market. It’s is up 21.3% year to date and up 13.8% in May alone, mainly due to the strong leadership from AI, chips, software, and data center infrastructure.

The Russell 2000 deserves its own callout. Small caps are up about 18% through the first 5 months of the year, their best start since 1991, and they are outperforming the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq.

The S&P 500 is up almost 4.9% for the month.
Since 1950, whenever May has gained more than 5%, the S&P 500 has never been lower one year later, with an average forward 12-month return of nearly 20%.
Strong markets can always pause, and after a run like this some digestion would be normal and no statistic guarantees the future, but the lesson is simple: strength often leads to more strength, especially when it is supported by earnings, broadening participation, and a market that keeps absorbing every pullback.

And now we’re entering a new month. Interestingly, Outside of the 2022 crash, June has been a surprisingly strong month over the last 10 years.

In the past, when the S&P 500 gained more than 10% across those 2 months, which happened in 1997, 2003, 2009, 2020, and now 2026, the rest of the year finished up double digits every single time, with an average return of nearly 19%.

I know everyone is eager to call this a bubble and point to Nvidia as the new Cisco, but it is worth slowing down and looking at the facts.
Cisco traded at roughly 200x earnings near its 2000 peak, while Nvidia trades at about 27x forward earnings today.
Cisco grew revenue at around a 55% CAGR from 1997 to 2000, which was incredible, but Nvidia has grown revenue at roughly a 75% CAGR over the last 3 years.
And the earnings power is not even close: Cisco was generating around $1.3B in quarterly cash flow near the dot-com peak, while Nvidia is generating roughly $25B per quarter.
None of this means Nvidia is risk-free, cheap, or immune to a major correction, but the lazy “Nvidia is Cisco” comparison ignores the scale, profitability, and valuation gap between the 2 companies.
Also worth remembering: the dot-com boom ran for more than 5 years, while this bull market is only about 3.5 years old, so even if this is a speculative cycle, these cycles can last much longer than people expect.

The market remains incredibly strong. The S&P 500 just put in 9 straight green weeks, the Nasdaq continues to lead, and small caps broke out to all-time highs after a multi-week consolidation.
So, the main takeaway for me is still the same: pullbacks and pauses remain opportunities until the market gives us a major reason to think otherwise.
Yes, the indices are extended, and after a run like this, a pause, consolidation, or normal pullback would not be surprising. But being extended alone is not enough to turn bearish, especially in a market where earnings are exploding and every dip continues to get bought quickly. Strength often feels uncomfortable in real time, but that is also what bull markets do. They keep forcing investors to decide whether they want to respect the trend or fight it. And I’ve learned a decade ago that you should never fight the trend.
Tech and AI remain the clear areas of focus. In a bull market powered by AI, I do not see a strong reason to shift attention away from the strongest themes. At some point, money may rotate more aggressively into blue chips, defensives, or slower compounders, but for now, the best setups and strongest momentum remain in technology, AI infrastructure, semiconductors, space, and similar themes.
Overall, I am staying bullish, as I have been for a while now. A short-term pullback would be completely normal after this kind of run, but until price action changes, I am treating weakness as opportunity and staying focused on the groups leading this market higher.
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