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Lin

Market Update: Back to Normal?

This is one of the most volatile markets we have seen in a while. Almost everything is driven by headlines. One day there is panic. The next day there is euphoria. Trillions of dollars move because of what someone said in a press conference or on social media.

Right now, it looks like we just saw another classic TACO move. Trump said he will not impose new tariffs on the EU and is now planning to make a deal around Greenland. We have seen this playbook before. He pushes hard, creates attention, lets everyone react, and then walks it back just enough to present himself as the one who made the deal. That is the Art of the Deal.

There will likely come a time when this will not work anymore. One time he will go too far, and that could create real chaos. For now, as long as he can walk away with something that looks like a win, this strategy keeps working. And as long as it works, markets will not fully price in worst case scenarios.

The most important thing to do now is to focus on individual sectors and stocks while managing risk. Even in messy markets like this, there are always stocks that refuse to go down. There are sectors that keep getting bought no matter what the news says. If a stock holds up while the market is selling off, that tells you something. Those are usually the names big institutions are buying while everyone else is focused on the news. So instead of trying to guess the next headline, it is much more effective to watch what is being accumulated. After all, there is always a bull market somewhere.

The leading sectors right now are clearly rare earths, space, AI infrastructure, drones, robotics, and critical minerals. Though many of them are already overextended, which makes it harder to find low risk entry points. Nonetheless, there are a few names worth watching right now.

One of them is Tesla.

Tesla remains the best play on physical AI.

It has massive upside if Robotaxis and Optimus launch successfully. It’s a big if, but it’s hard to bet against Elon. He has proven again and again that he can deliver against the odds. After all, he’s likely going to be the world’s first trillionaire, maybe even this year after SpaceX blockbuster IPO.

Robotaxis could be the catalyst.

There’s a lot of positive news around Tesla’s Robotaxi rollout. It has started offering unsupervised FSD Robotaxi rides to the public in Austin with no safety monitor onboard. They also expect to get approval for supervised FSD in Europe as soon as next month, with similar timing for China. This year could very well be a breakthrough for Tesla if they can scale up their fleet.

If we zoom out, Tesla has a tendency to consolidate for years before a starting a huge move. It looks like we might on the verge of the next big rally. It might be just getting started.

Just be aware that earnings come out next Wednesday. It’s clear that Tesla’s core auto business is having a harder time right now with all the competition from China. But this will likely matter less as long as there is meaningful progress toward physical AI.