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Lin

Weekly Market Update: Thanksgiving Week

Thanksgiving week gave investors a lot to be thankful for.

The S&P 500 dipped below the 50 day moving average last week, but it recovered quickly. This is exactly the type of reaction you want to see in a strong market. As I have noted many times, the longer the index sits below the 50 day, the more caution is required. But this bounce is a very positive signal.

Even though the index fell almost 5 percent during the month, buyers stepped in quickly and regained control. The market finished November positive.

And here is an interesting fact going into December:

When the S&P 500 closes positive for the month despite a drawdown of at least 4.5 percent, the next month is higher 79 percent of the time.

The S&P 500 has now been up every month since April. That is seven straight months in a row. This type of streak does not last forever. It will end at some point.

But…

…looking out this is very positive news for the markets.

Strong markets tend to remain strong longer than people expect. So, while there might be some short-term turbulence, they just don’t die suddenly. It’s hard to kill a bull.

And the market internals are improving steadily too.

Several breadth indicators have turned higher which means the rally is broadening. More stocks are participating, not just a few large names. This is what you want to see in a healthy uptrend. They are not perfect. No indicator is infallible, this is a pretty good track record.


December has historically been one of the best months of the year for equities:

  • 46.3 percent of Nasdaq’s annual highs since 1971 happened in December.

  • Since 2003, all major US indices made their annual highs in December eleven times.

  • Since 1980, the S&P 500 has finished December green more than 70 percent of the time.

However, sometimes the first half of the month can be choppy until the Christmas rally starts in the second half.

Volatility also dropped sharply. The VIX moved from above 26 to below 18 within four days. This is critical because lower volatility often creates a more stable environment especially for risk-on assets.

Another important reminder. If you only listen to headlines, it can feel like the market faces a crash every year. The data tells a different story. Severe bear markets are rare, and the time between them is usually much longer than people think.

Good time to remember this bull market is only about three years old. Also, up 92% is still very low compared with other bull markets.

There is a common belief that only a handful of mega caps drive the entire US market. The numbers do not fully support that view.

The top 10 stocks account for about 40 percent of market cap. That sounds high, but it was 39 percent last year and the market performed well. Compared globally, the United States is actually one of the least concentrated markets. Only Japan and India are less top heavy. Many other markets are far more concentrated.

Earnings have been a clear positive surprise this quarter. At the start of Q3, analysts expected 7.9 percent earnings growth. That number is now closer to 13.4 percent. Revenue growth reached a three-year high.

The Mag 7 earnings were up 18.4% this quarter, a very strong number and much better than expected two months ago.

But what many seem to consistently ignore is how well everyone else is doing. That’s right, the 493 has seen earnings up nearly 15%! Yes, those big seven (not six, but seven) names make a LOT of money, but the other 493 are doing just fine.

Alphabet has also stood out recently.

Over the last year, Alphabet has gained more than 80 percent and has separated from the rest of the large cap group.

It has moved so quickly that it now trades at a higher forward valuation than Nvidia.

I was very surprised by this, but since both are sizeable positions I don’t have much to complain about.

Reports are already out showing that U.S. Black Friday sales hit a new record high.

  • Online sales reached $11.7B, up almost 9% YoY according to Adobe Analytics.

  • Adobe is also expecting shoppers to spend another $11B across Saturday and Sunday while Cyber Monday is projected to clear $14B.

  • Shopify also dropped their own numbers and they were just as strong.

  • Shopify merchants generated $6.2B in sales on Friday, up 25% from last year and marking a new all time high for the platform.

In short, the consumer seems to be doing fine still.

Earnings season is mostly over but there is a few smaller names reporting this coming week.

The November sell-off looks more like a healthy reset than the start of a larger decline. With 22 trading days left in the year, the setup for stocks looks promising. Hence, I’m preparing a list of the key names to watch for the last month of the year. On top of that we have supportive seasonality, earnings were one of the best in years, the Fed is expected to cut rates in December, and most importantly the AI buildout is far from done. There will continue to be some bumps along the way but overall the bull is still alive and kicking.