Lin
Nov 30, 2025
Weekly Market Update: Thanksgiving Week
Thanksgiving week gave investors a lot to be thankful for.
The S&P 500 dipped below the 50 day moving average last week, but it recovered quickly. This is exactly the type of reaction you want to see in a strong market. As I have noted many times, the longer the index sits below the 50 day, the more caution is required. But this bounce is a very positive signal.
Even though the index fell almost 5 percent during the month, buyers stepped in quickly and regained control. The market finished November positive.
And here is an interesting fact going into December:
When the S&P 500 closes positive for the month despite a drawdown of at least 4.5 percent, the next month is higher 79 percent of the time.
The S&P 500 has now been up every month since April. That is seven straight months in a row. This type of streak does not last forever. It will end at some point.
But…
…looking out this is very positive news for the markets.
Strong markets tend to remain strong longer than people expect. So, while there might be some short-term turbulence, they just don’t die suddenly. It’s hard to kill a bull.
And the market internals are improving steadily too.
Several breadth indicators have turned higher which means the rally is broadening. More stocks are participating, not just a few large names. This is what you want to see in a healthy uptrend. They are not perfect. No indicator is infallible, this is a pretty good track record.
December has historically been one of the best months of the year for equities:
46.3 percent of Nasdaq’s annual highs since 1971 happened in December.
Since 2003, all major US indices made their annual highs in December eleven times.
Since 1980, the S&P 500 has finished December green more than 70 percent of the time.
However, sometimes the first half of the month can be choppy until the Christmas rally starts in the second half.
Volatility also dropped sharply. The VIX moved from above 26 to below 18 within four days. This is critical because lower volatility often creates a more stable environment especially for risk-on assets.
Another important reminder. If you only listen to headlines, it can feel like the market faces a crash every year. The data tells a different story. Severe bear markets are rare, and the time between them is usually much longer than people think.
Good time to remember this bull market is only about three years old. Also, up 92% is still very low compared with other bull markets.
There is a common belief that only a handful of mega caps drive the entire US market. The numbers do not fully support that view.
The top 10 stocks account for about 40 percent of market cap. That sounds high, but it was 39 percent last year and the market performed well. Compared globally, the United States is actually one of the least concentrated…
Lin
Nov 23, 2025
Weekly Market Update: Is this the Bottom?
The S&P 500 officially closed its most volatile week since April.
It made a bit of unwanted history on Thursday. On Thursday it opened up more than 1.5% and then closed down more than 1.5%. It was only the 4th time ever that the S&P 500 experienced an intraday swing of that magnitude.
And if you look at the times since 1950, there have been only 8 days where the index opened more than 1% higher but still finished red.
One month later the S&P 500 was higher in 6 of the last 7 cases. The last 3 times this happened marked the bottom.
Even Nvidia’s incredible earnings could not stop the pullback.
The numbers were off the charts. No other company on earth is growing at this scale. Jensen said it well: “AI is going everywhere, doing everything, all at once.”
AI is not hype. It is a multi trillion build out. But that does not mean it will go up in a straight line. There have already been several big drawdowns. And there will be many more. Each time the sceptics said the AI bull market was over. Each time they were wrong.
Sometimes it helps to zoom out and look at the long term chart. When you compare this to the dotcom bubble, we’re still only in the third inning. There is still room to run. And the actual big moves happen much later.
Last week the S&P 500 closed below its 50 day moving average for the first time since April 30.
That ended a 198 day uptrend. It was the fifth longest since 1950. This is why trend following matters. It keeps you safe from the worst drawdowns while still catching the big upside with zero guesswork.
So what now.
The most likely outcome is that volatility comes back. The rally since April was almost too smooth. It ran more than 40% without a simple 5% pullback. That is not normal.
We pulled back about 5.8% from the October high. Since the 2009 low we have seen 31 corrections bigger than 5%. Every single one came with scary headlines. Every single one felt like the end of the world. But the world did not end and the market made new highs each time.
Bitcoin has been crushed and is now the worst performing major asset in 2025. It is down about 36% from its all time high and even down for the year. That has never happened before. So either the rest of the market…
Lin
Nov 21, 2025
Market Update: Nvidia Couldn’t Save the Market
Nvidia delivered another historic quarter.
Revenue came in at $57B, up 62% YoY, and they raised Q4 guidance to $63.7B to $66.3B. Data center revenue hit $51.2B, up 66% YoY, so demand for accelerated computing is still running way ahead of supply. Net income jumped to about $32B, up 65% YoY. Gross margins were a huge 73.4%.
They also announced more multi year orders worth hundreds of thousands of GPUs from governments, hyperscalers, and big enterprises. Most software companies never see numbers like this. And Nvidia does it with hardware, networking, and software all at once. The whole thing runs with margins that look like cloud SaaS. It’s unreal.
But even numbers like that couldn’t save the market.
That’s when you know the market needs to more time to reset.
For the past few weeks I kept coming back to one idea. Patience. I have reduced my activity a lot because the environment changed and the risk reward shifted. You could see it in how the speculative names, volatility increasing, crypto getting crushed, and the market starting to trend down. It was on us to notice that shift and the signs were there.
Everyone wants to know what to buy and when to buy. But the hardest part is knowing when to exit. Selling is the most difficult part of investing. It makes you emotional. Because there is no perfect way to sell. You will always feel stupid. Either you sell too early and the stock goes higher. Or you sell too late and it goes lower.
It’s a game of imperfect decisions and no matter what we do, hindsight will always make us feel like we could’ve done better. The only thing we can control is making consistent, rational choices that protect our capital and keep us in a position to win long term.
At the end there is only one thing that matters and that is how much you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong. Nothing else. That’s why having clear sell rules is important. Hence, I’ve continued to reduce exposure, or rather I got forced to sell because some stop losses hit.
Here are a few fundamental and technical guiding principles on when to sell. Selling is never easy, but these ideas help you make better decisions and stay objective:
Fundamentals:
1. Management changes
Leadership shift often signals deeper problems.
The culture and direction of the company can change fast.
A new CEO introduces unknowns.
2. Worsening earnings
One bad quarter is fine, a trend of weak results is not.
Stocks follow earnings over time.
You must check if weakness is temporary or structural.
If the core business weakens, exit the position.
3. Better opportunities
Capital is limited.
Sometimes selling a good stock makes sense if a better one appears.
It is normal if the old stock continues higher.
The key question is where your money works hardest today.
4. Legal issues or fraud concerns
Immediate sell. No questions.
You cannot trust the numbers anymore.
Too many clean companies exist to stay in one with scandals.
Fraud destroys investor trust for years.
Technicals:
Closing below key moving averages
Strong trends ride the 21 day EMA and 50 day SMA.
A close below them is a red flag and signals the trend is reversing.
This is a signal to start reducing or cutting the position entirely.
2. Closing back below a breakout level
A failed breakout traps buyers.
Once price closes below the breakout zone, sentiment flips negative.
Often leads to heavy downside.
3. Multiple high volume red days & weeks
Suggests institutions are selling.
After big money leaves, rallies weaken.
The trend usually slows or reverses.
4. Lower highs and lower lows
Classic sign of a trend reversal.
First lower high is often the warning.
Do not stay once the trend starts breaking down.
5. Relative weakness
If the market or sector is strong but your stock is declining, something is wrong.
Leaders outperform. Weak names lag early.
That’s an early signal to exit.
Lin
Nov 18, 2025
Market Update: Patience
This is the first time since April that all the major indices are sitting below their 10, 20, and 50 day moving averages. That’s an important detail to notice. It tells you the tone of the market changed.
If you look at the move since April it has been almost straight up. Very clean trend. Now we finally see real weakness across the board. That alone is a good reason to be a bit more cautious.
You can avoid a lot of unnecessary stress if you wait for things to settle. The first sign of stability is the market reclaiming the 50 day. That one level filters out a lot of noise. If it manages to do that soon the bottom is likely in for this correction. But the longer it lives below it the risk is getting higher. Getting back above all of them would be ideal, but the 50 day is the key one to watch.
Until that happens it makes sense to stay a little more careful.
On top of that there is almost no interest in speculative names right now. There is basically zero appetite for risk. Just a few weeks ago this list was full of names. Now it is down to 2. It has been a complete washout for momentum names.
The only positive thing is that there are still a few leaders holding up. But even that group is getting smaller and smaller. It shows how selective the market has become.
All of this basically tells you to stay patient.
There is no reason to guess what comes next. When things turn it will be clear. Once the market improves you will get a ton of opportunities. You will almost feel overwhelmed because everything starts working at the same time.
It is so much easier to make progress when the market is in a healthy environment. You just need to be patient and wait for that window to open again.
Here are a few signs to watch for:
• A clear catalyst
• A strong and steady uptrend
• Major indices trading back above key moving averages
• Several themes working at the same time
• Big gap ups on strong volume
• Gaps holding instead of fading
• Follow through days
• Little volatility
• Pullbacks on low volume
• Pullbacks getting bought quickly
• Strong closes near the highs
• Positions starting to work almost right away
• You feel like there are almost too many opportunities
• Your equity curve is moving up steadily
These periods don’t come often. When you spot one you have to lean in and be aggressive because that is when you make real progress.
This is not that kind of environment right now.
Maybe Nvidia earnings will change the mood. We’ll find out soon. But that part is pure guessing. What you can do is to be prepared.
The next window of opportunity will come. It always does. And when it does you want to be ready to take advantage of it.
Lin
Nov 16, 2025
Weekly Market Update: No Appetite for Risk
The longest government shutdown finally ended this week. It ran for 43 days from October 10 to November 12. And funny enough the S&P 500 still went up 2.4 percent during that time. If you only check the main indices you would think nothing happened, but below the surface volatility was intense.
And right after it ended the market kept selling off, which is not that surprising. A bit of downside volatility after a shutdown ends is pretty common. But if you look a few weeks out the market usually finds its footing again and turns back up.
Bitcoin is still the best real-time indicator of how much risk investors want to take.
The S&P is sitting close to all-time highs, but Bitcoin actually topped in October and has been sliding since then. It is now down about 25% from its peak. And the weakness has spilled over into tech stocks as well.
Bitcoin is moving almost in sync with tech right now. The correlation is very high. So if Bitcoin keeps dropping it will likely pull tech lower as well.
Bitcoin is now sitting right on an important level.
It just fell under 94,000, which means it has basically gone nowhere over the past year. It is trading right around the average price people paid in the last 6 to 12 months. This level needs to hold. If it drops much further it could trigger another large wave of sellers.
But sentiment is already very negative. In fact it is the lowest it has been in over a year, which sometimes sets up a rebound. So maybe this is where it finally finds a bottom. This is a do or die moment.
At the same time we have seen a sharp drop in many speculative stocks.
The high fliers in AI, quantum, and nuclear have taken big hits over the past month. To be fair many of them doubled or even tripled since the bottom in April, so a pullback was pretty much guaranteed. But still pullbacks can brutal if you bought near the top. This is why risk management matters so much and why staying in sync with the general market is so important.
A lot of these big swings are tied to large amounts of leverage.
There has been massive buying of options. The problem with that much leverage is that it makes the market very sensitive to even the smallest moves. Every little drop gets amplified and turns into forced liquidation. That selling then creates even more volatility, and that is how we end up with the sharp drops we are seeing now.
The good news is that these corrections are healthy although painful. They wash out the excess leverage and reset the market so it can move higher again later.
So now investors are hiding in the biggest stocks again and treating them like a safe haven. This is classic megacap positioning. Everyone is crowding into the familiar winners because they feel safer than everything else right now.
But this chart is a good reminder that even the biggest stocks in the world are not safe from volatility. If you look back at 2022 you can see how far those names actually dropped. Nothing is immune when the…
Lin
Nov 10, 2025
AAPL
Buy
Buy: $APH
Amphenol is one of the companies that makes AI hardware actually work.
AI data centers and GPU servers need to move huge amounts of power and data very quickly. Amphenol makes the physical parts that make those connections possible. They build the high-speed connectors, cables, and sensors that sit between GPUs, memory chips, networking switches, cooling units, and power systems.
AI hardware is very demanding.
Signals move at extremely high speeds and temperatures inside the servers is intense. A weak connector can cause data errors, overheating, or even full system failure. AI simply doesn’t work without stable connections. Amphenol specializes in building those critical components that are strong, stable, and most importantly very reliable.
When someone like Amazon, Microsoft, Nvidia, or Tesla needs a new custom connector or cable system, Amphenol can design it, test it, and produce all in-house. Once those parts are designed into a server or device, they usually stay there for years. That makes the business steady and recurring.
As AI models get larger, data centers need more GPUs, more power, and more high-speed communication between chips. Every step of this growth requires more connectors and more interconnect systems. Amphenol doesn’t have to guess which AI company becomes the winner. They sell to all of them. They benefit from the entire wave of AI expansion.
Similar to Celestica, Amphenol has been growing steadily for years with strong margins. But the AI boom has taken that steady growth and pushed it into a new gear. The demand for high-speed data connections inside AI servers is exploding.
Lin
Nov 10, 2025
AAPL
Watch
Stock to Watch: $CLS
AI data centers are being built everywhere.
But someone has to actually design and assemble the hardware that makes them run. And only a small number of companies in the world can do that at scale.
Celestica is one of them.
It specializes in designing, sourcing, assembling, and testing the systems that power large-scale computing.
They manage the entire process: engineering the hardware, securing the components, coordinating suppliers, and then manufacturing and delivering finished systems.
Their focus is not on low-cost consumer devices. They build high-performance, high-reliability equipment where quality and precision matter.
Because of this, you do not see their brand on the products. They are the partner behind the scenes.
When companies like Nvidia, AMD, Microsoft, Amazon, or large enterprise customers need a custom server architecture built and delivered globally, they go to Celestica. These customers rely on Celestica to get the design right, source the right materials, solve production bottlenecks, and scale output quickly.
Right now, the most important part of the business is AI data center infrastructure.
AI hardware has become much more specialized and extremely power-dense. Cooling and power delivery are now as critical as the chips themselves.
Celestica builds the server racks, power units, cooling systems, and networking hardware that companies like Nvidia, AMD, and major cloud providers rely on to train and run large AI models.
It had already been growing steadily, but the AI supercycle has accelerated that growth in a major way. And even during the recent correction, it held up while many others sold off.
Lin
Nov 9, 2025
Weekly Market Update: The Price of Admission
What a week.
Monday opened strong and sold off. Tuesday gapped down. Wednesday recovered. Thursday gapped down again. Friday opened lower but finished flat. In the end, the S&P closed the week down about 1.6%.
But the index is hiding what’s happening underneath.
The S&P 500 is down at the lows 4% and 6% for the Nasdaq 100.
Earlier this year, roughly two-thirds of the index was positive year-to-date. Now, even with the index still close to its highs, only about half of the stocks are still up YTD. A smaller group of names is doing most of the work.
This isn’t new. In October, the major indices hit new highs while a large share of individual stocks did not. About 40% of the Nasdaq 100, 42% of the S&P 500, and more than half of the Russell 2000 were negative for the year at that point. The market has been getting narrower for months.
You can see it in the decline from recent highs. More than 150 stocks in the S&P 500 are down at least 20% from their 52-week highs. That is nearly double what we saw last year. Leadership is concentrated in only a handful of names.
The market has been carried by just a few giants. The Mag 7 now make up more than 35% of the entire index. But this is not the same as the market being held up by one narrow theme or one risky bet. These companies run huge, diverse businesses. They touch cloud, AI, chips, hardware, software, and massive consumer platforms. They are some of the strongest and most durable companies in the world.
We’ve seen this before. When cars became popular, General Motors became the biggest company and stayed on top for years. When computers took off, IBM did the same.
If AI is a real, lasting shift, then companies like Nvidia will stay on top for a long time. The demand for AI chips and infrastructure is only just getting started. If this trend continues even halfway as expected, they remain the center of the new economy.
But when the market depends too much on just a few big stocks, the whole market becomes fragile. Those big names are basically holding everything up. So if they start to fall, the rest of the market usually follows. The Mag 7 just had their weakest week since April, falling more than 3%.
High beta and unprofitable tech stocks were hit even harder than the broad market. These are the names that tend to move the most when sentiment shifts, and this time was no different. Volatility in this group has jumped back to levels we last saw during the tariff shock years, because investors always pull back from the highest-risk areas first.
For many of these stocks, the declines have been sharp. It’s not unusual to see individual names down 15%, 20%, or even 30% in a matter of weeks or even days.
Bitcoin has been weak. It fell below its 200-day moving average and is now more than 20% below its recent peak. Bitcoin often moves first when investors become more or less willing to take risk, so this drop suggests risk appetite has cooled.
A big part of the decline came from…
Lin
Nov 6, 2025
Market Update: Earnings Carnage
Earnings season has been severely unforgiving. Strong results haven’t been rewarded, while even minor misses have resulted in sharp sell-offs. The market is clearly prioritizing risk reduction over upside right now.
It’s been an absolute bloodbath in many growth stocks.
I’ve highlighted this a while ago but it doesn’t hurt to repeat.
This is not a supportive environment for growth stocks.
It doesn’t mean it’s time to sell everything or short the market. This bull market still has room to run. But it might be wise to take a few chips off the table, lock in some profits, get rid of weaker positions, and slightly reduce exposure. This isn’t about perfectly timing the market. That’s impossible. It’s about managing risk.
De-risking the portfolio after a strong rally helps limit drawdowns, smooth out volatility, and be able to take advantage of new opportunities.
Hence, I’ve reduced my exposure a bit to adjust to current market conditions. The environment is a lot less predictable, and I’d rather stay flexible as things evolve.
Most people think you have to pick a side. Either you’re bullish or you’re bearish. But that kind of all-or-nothing mindset will get you into trouble eventually.
Instead, think of your portfolio like a dimmer switch.
When the market conditions are good, you turn the exposure up. When they deteriorate, you turn it down. There's no reason to go from 0 to 100 or vice versa.
Yes, you’ll miss a bit of upside sometimes. That’s fine.
Missing upside doesn’t kill you.
Big drawdowns do.
The goal is to stay in the game.
There will always be opportunities to make money in the markets. But you have to survive to take advantage of them.
Lin
Nov 4, 2025
Quick Market Update: The Big Short 2.0
Well, it looks like the market finally started its correction.
Everyone suddenly panicked because Michael Burry took a short position in Palantir and Nvidia. But just because Burry is short doesn’t mean the market has to collapse right now. He started shorting the housing market in 2005 before it eventually collapsed in 2008. It took two years before it played out. But the market right now simply needed an excuse to pull back, and this was enough. It’s not surprising.
This was already the scenario we talked about in the Sunday update:
This streak won’t last forever. It will eventually end. When it does end, the pullback often comes quickly because long stretches of strength makes investors overconfident and complacent. That complacency is usually what creates sharp corrections.
The market is being carried by a smaller group of stocks. That doesn’t break the bull case, but it does make the market more sensitive to any weakness in the leaders.
It’s more important than ever to be selective in the very best names. The market is rewarding strength and punishing weakness quickly. There is very little room for mistakes or “good enough” results.
And sometimes even strong results just don’t matter in this kind of market.
Dave reported a very solid quarter and even raised full-year guidance by $50M to $550M. The stock initially jumped around 18% on the news, but then completely reversed and was down 7% before it went back to flat. That kind of reaction says a lot. It clearly shows what kind of environment we’re in right now. The market just doesn’t really know what it wants right now. It’s undecisive and emotional.
Palantir is another interesting example. After its earnings report, the stock was up 7% before reversing sharply and down 10% at one point.
This is a period where less is more.
Since the April lows the market was quietly trending higher. That has changed recently. Reactions are more volatile and more emotional.
That’s usually not a supportive environment for growth stocks or taking excessive risks in general.
Momentum is weakening across many growth names. This is clearly visible on the Market Model. It shows how the market internals have deteriorated significantly.
On top of that, crypto is getting completely decimated. It lost $1T in market cap in less than a month…
There’s no reason to rush into the market right now, especially if you had a great year so far. There’s also no reason to turn bearish. But it’s best to more cautious for the time being and try to give back as little as possible.
Lin
Nov 2, 2025
Weekly Market Update: A Bifurcated Market
A lot happened this week. The Fed cut rates and five of the Mag 7 delivered earnings, sending the major indexes to new all-time highs before volatility returned again.
We’ve now hit the 36th all-time high this year.
And as I’ve said again and again, all-time highs are not something to fear. They’re one of the most bullish signals the market can give. Markets don’t make new highs in weak environments. And markets that make new highs tend to continue making new highs.
The Nasdaq was up more than 4% for the second month in a row, marking its seventh straight monthly gain. The S&P 500 and the Dow also extended their winning streaks to six months. For the Dow, that’s the longest stretch since 2018.
But this streak won’t last forever. It will eventually end. When they do end, the pullback often comes quickly because long stretches of strength can make investors overconfident and complacent. That complacency is usually what creates sharp corrections.
November is historically one of the strongest months of the year. It’s positive about 70% of the time and holds the highest average monthly return across the calendar. But it gets even more interesting when you look at how November behaves after a strong year.
When the market comes into November already up 15% or more year-to-date, November and December they tend to outperform. In those scenarios November has averaged a 2.7% gain vs the usual 1.9%. And even more impressive: the November–December stretch has finished higher 20 out of the past 21 times when that happened.
On the surface, the major indices look great. Prices are well above their 200-day moving average, momentum is positive, and the market has largely shrugged off any negative headlines. But when you look beneath the surface, the picture is starting to look a little less convincing.
Fewer and fewer stocks are participating in the rally. Right now, only about half of S&P 500 stocks are trading above their 200-day moving average. That’s the weakest breadth reading since May. In other words, the trend is still up, but it’s being carried by a smaller group of stocks.
That doesn’t break the bull case, but it does make the market more sensitive to any weakness in the leaders.
That was surprising on its own. But this next piece is even more so.
The number of stocks hitting 52-week lows is now the highest it’s been since April. And that’s happening while the major indices are sitting near all-time highs. Those two things usually don’t occur together.
You may see dramatic headlines about the Hindenburg Omen being triggered. It sounds like a crash alarm, but it’s really not that dramatic. All it means is that a lot of stocks are hitting new highs and a lot are hitting new lows at the same time while the market is still in an uptrend. In simple terms, it’s just another sign that breadth is weakening.
Yes, the signal has appeared before major corrections. But it has also shown up many times when nothing significant followed. It’s not a prediction of a crash. It’s simply a reminder that the market is being driven by fewer names, and that makes it more fragile.
Tech is the only sector that has actually outperformed the S&P 500 over the past six months. And it is not just slightly ahead. It is leading by a very wide margin.
And there’s a reason for that…
Lin
Nov 2, 2025
The AI Gold Rush Continues
The AI gold rush isn't slowing down.
Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft all ramped up spending this quarter, posting record capex on AI chips, servers, and data centers.
Microsoft
Spent $34.9B in capex last quarter, the highest in its history.
Amazon
Spent $34.2B in capex in Q3.
Plans to spend $125B on capex this year, up from $83B in 2024.
Spent $24B in capex in Q3, mostly on AI infrastructure.
Raised full-year capex guidance to $91B to $93B, from $85B previously.
Meta
Spent $19.4B in capex in Q3.
Updated 2025 capex guidance to $70B to $72B, up from $66B to $72B (Nearly double the $39.2B spent in 2024).
Expects capex to grow meaningfully next year.
More than $110B was spent on AI infrastructure in Q3 alone. And the spending isn’t slowing. Every major hyperscaler is seeing massive demand and is prepared to spend whatever it takes. This is a race none of them can afford to lose.
This is the leading sector right now. I’ve been saying this for a while. If you’re not exposed to AI yet, you’re missing out on of the biggest transformation in history.
One thing is clear, the demand for compute is massive.
Training AI, reasoning, agents, images, videos, robotics, self-driving cars. They all need huge amount of compute.
Go check out the thematic portfolio, if you haven’t already.
AI makes up the majority of the growth portfolio, and those positions are doing extremely well.
$CRDO $NVDA $PWR $NBIS $LEU $TSLA $GOOGL
And it’s not just them.
We’ve also seen blowout earnings recently from $CLS, $NVT, $WDC, $NXT, $APH, $STX, and $TER (just to name a few). These are the names you’ll want to keep an eye on for new positions, especially if the market pulls back here.
This is more confirmation that the AI wave is just getting started.
Lin
Oct 28, 2025
The New Industrial Revolution
As many of you know, I’ve been investing for nearly a decade. It’s the best investment I’ve ever made. NVIDIA is now on track to become the first 5 trillion dollar company.
Every industry is being rebuilt around AI, and NVIDIA is at the center of it. This is the heart of a new industrial revolution. That’s why it is the most important company in the world right now and should be part of any portfolio.
Jensen’s keynote today is a must watch.
Here are my notes:
AI is not just another tool.
It has rebuilt the entire computing stack. It represents language, images, video, molecules, proteins, and code using the same underlying structure. It learns patterns and generates new ideas. It doesn’t just assist with work. It is becoming a worker that uses tools, makes decisions, and automates complex processes.
To support this shift, the world needs AI factories. These are data centers designed not to store information, but to produce intelligence at massive scale. They require new breakthroughs in compute, memory, efficiency, and system design.
Traditional data centers weren’t built for this. The next era is the AI factory: a purpose-built system designed to generate intelligence as its primary output. And NVIDIA has spent decades developing the architecture to make it possible.
And it’s not just one chip. Every generation combines GPU, CPU, networking processors, and NVLink switches into a unified architecture. They are co-designed so that dozens or even thousands of GPUs can function as one massive, coordinated processor.
But it’s even more than hardware. It’s a complete stack of algorithms, software libraries, systems, and applications built specifically for AI.
NVIDIA has over 350 specialized CUDA libraries that power healthcare, robotics, manufacturing, digital biology, scientific research, and more. This software ecosystem is one of the strongest moats in all of technology.
Demand is off the charts. They have already shipped about 6 million Blackwell GPUs in less than a year.
And Nvidia still has line of sight on $500B in cumulative Blackwell and early Rubin revenue through the end of calendar year 2026.
This is the new industrial revolution.
And we are just getting started.
Lin
Oct 28, 2025
AAPL
Watch
Stock to Watch: $AVGO
Broadcom is the second best chip company in the world after Nvidia.
It designs custom chips (XPUs) for specific tasks like training, inference, ranking, vector search, and recommendation. They are one of the few companies in the world that can actually design and manufacture these chips at hyperscale.
Companies come to Broadcom because the custom silicon team there does something unique. They work side-by-side with cloud providers and AI labs to design chips around the exact needs of their models and infrastructure.
Compute logic, memory layout, interconnect fabric, packaging, and power delivery are all co-designed and optimized as one system. This lets these companies run their specific AI workloads faster, more efficiently, and at lower cost than using generic chips.
That’s why AWS, Google, Meta, Microsoft, and OpenAI all work with Broadcom in different parts of their AI infrastructure co-developing multiple generations of custom AI chips and networking solutions.
And it’s not an either-or. GPUs and XPUs will grow together. GPUs are the general-purpose engines that train and run large models, flexible and essential for deep learning. But as AI scales, many workloads benefit from dedicated accelerators optimized for very specific tasks. That’s where XPUs come in. XPUs handle high-volume tasks like inference, ranking, recommendation, and vector search at lower cost and higher efficiency. They don’t replace GPUs. Instead they’ll work together.
Nvidia and Broadcom are two of the biggest winners of the AI infrastructure buildout and the new industrial revolution.
Lin
Oct 26, 2025
Weekly Market Update: Momentum Reset
The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and the Dow all closed at new all-time highs this week.
And while the headline indices looked calm, the path to get there was anything but. We saw some real volatility mid-week, especially in momentum and growth names, before the market recovered.
A big driver was the latest inflation report. CPI came in at 3.0% year over year in September, slightly below expectations. It’s still higher than the Fed would like, but the direction matters more than the level here. The trend is still moving lower, and markets are treating that as confirmation that the Fed can continue to cut rates.
The NASDAQ is now on track to finish its 7th straight positive month. This doesn’t happen often. Historically, when the NASDAQ has rallied for seven months in a row, short-term returns have been mixed, but looking out a few months and especially a year later, it has been higher every time.
But while the major indices barely moved, we just saw a sharp pullback under the surface. The Goldman Sachs Momentum Index dropped about 15% in six days, and a lot of individual names fell 30–40% during that stretch. The selling was fast and concentrated. But the chances are high that this might be the end of the pullback. This type of sharp reset usually clears the excessive leverage, which increases the likelihood that the pullback is nearing its end.
Here’s another way to look at it: Investors rotated out of the high-flyers and into more defensive names. That’s actually a healthy sign. Strong bull markets tend to move in waves, not all at once.
Speculation is still very present. Zero-day-to-expiration options trading remains extremely heavy. These are essentially ultra-short-term leveraged bets. They add fuel on the upside but also increase fragility if news turns suddenly.
Margin debt is also rising. Rising leverage doesn’t kill an uptrend on its own, but it does…
Lin
Oct 24, 2025
Sector to Watch: AI Infrastructure
AI is one of the biggest opportunities of this decade, and likely the defining one. It is reshaping every industry, changing how work gets done, how decisions are made, and how value is created. This is the leading sector in the market right now, and that is not by coincidence. The demand for compute keeps rising and there is no sign of it slowing.
AI systems require enormous computational power. Training models, running real-time inference, operating AI agents, generating images and video, controlling robots, and enabling autonomous vehicles all depend on massive data center capacity, advanced chips, high-bandwidth networking, and reliable energy infrastructure. The more capable these systems become, the more compute they consume. Most people still underestimate this.
And this is still early. AI is not just a tool. It is a new form of intelligence that can plan, reason, and solve complex problems. As these systems move from research environments into everyday products, enterprise workflows, and real physical applications, compute requirements will expand dramatically from here.
There is practically no limit to how much intelligence we can use.
New large-scale data center projects are being announced almost every week. Companies across chips, cloud, hardware manufacturing, networking, and power systems are seeing incredible growth. Recent earnings have confirmed how strong demand really is. Many suppliers are reporting record orders, multi-year backlog commitments, and faster deployment cycles. Even second-order players such as design tools, memory, cooling, and optical components are benefiting as the ecosystem scales.
That is why the AI infrastructure theme continues to lead. If you have not yet explored the AI Infrastructure portfolio, it is worth taking a look.
The companies that did pull back are already recovering quickly. And many of the strongest names barely moved at all, while many growth stocks were selling off.
So, here are a few subsectors to keep an eye on:
Memory & Storage
Storage is becoming a critical part of the AI infrastructure stack.
Training and running large models requires moving massive amounts of data quickly, which puts pressure on both capacity and speed. Solid-state drives are increasingly used because they offer much faster read and write performance than traditional hard drives, which helps keep GPUs fully utilized instead of waiting for data. Hard drives still matter for long-term data retention and training datasets.
Neocloud Providers
The new generation of cloud providers are at the cire of the AI boom.
They supply the physical infrastructure that makes large-scale training and inference possible. This includes high-density racks, advanced cooling systems, high-bandwidth networking, and the power capacity to run clusters of GPUs around the clock.
Traditional hyperscalers are expanding aggressively, but smaller and more specialized AI cloud companies are growing even faster. These firms move quicker and can tailor their architecture specifically for AI workloads.
Networking
Moving data between GPUs, servers, and storage systems requires extremely high bandwidth and low latency. Without fast networking, even the most advanced chips sit idle waiting for data.
This is why technologies like high-speed optical interconnects, advanced switches, and specialized network fabrics are seeing strong demand. As models grow and training clusters scale to thousands of GPUs, the bottleneck is no longer just the chip. It is how fast data can move across the system.
High-bandwidth, low-latency networking is required to keep GPUs fully utilized, which is why demand for optical interconnects, advanced switches, and specialized network fabrics is accelerating.
The faster the network, the more efficient the compute.
Networking is not a supporting role. It is a critical layer that directly determines the performance and cost of AI.
Semiconductors
Semiconductors remain the foundation of the entire AI ecosystem. Every improvement in model size, speed, and capability depends on more advanced chips and manufacturing processes. Demand for high-performance GPUs, specialized accelerators, memory, and advanced packaging continues to rise as training clusters grow larger and inference moves into real products. At the same time, new fabrication nodes and supply chain capacity are becoming strategic priorities for both companies and governments. Simply put, without continued progress in semiconductors, the AI wave cannot scale.
Lin
Oct 24, 2025
Sector to Watch: Cybersecurity
OpenAI recently announced their new AI-powered browser. I’ve tested it, and it’s an interesting step forward. But OpenAI is not alone in this. Google is adding more AI features to Chrome, Perplexity launched its own browser recently, and several other players are working on similar products.
Most of these tools are still early. They work, but the experience is not fully refined yet. Still, the direction is clear. Just like the launch of ChatGPT sparked a wave of AI adoption, this could trigger a new wave of AI-native browsing.
We are moving toward a world where there will be an order of magnitude more AI agents browsing the internet than human users. And the biggest vulnerability in this shift is security. Browsers sit at the center of our digital lives: emails, passwords, financial accounts, and internal company systems. If an AI agent is interacting with all of this, the security risk increases significantly.
This means cybersecurity is becoming even more critical. As AI becomes more capable, the demand for secure workflows, authentication layers, and protection systems grows alongside it. Businesses will be forced to care, because the attack surface is getting larger.
So it’s a good moment to keep cybersecurity names on your watchlist.
Here are four that stand out right now. They are growing quickly, expanding their platforms, and gaining more enterprise adoption. However, like many cybersecurity companies, most are not strongly profitable yet. Their priority is growth and building defensive moats.
CrowdStrike $CRWD
CrowdStrike provides cloud-native cybersecurity software that uses artificial intelligence to protect endpoints, cloud workloads, identities, and data from cyber threats by detecting and stopping attacks in real time.
Its Falcon platform analyzes activity in real time using AI models. Instead of relying on traditional antivirus signatures, it learns from large amounts of threat data across its customer base. CrowdStrike is known for fast detection speed, ease of deployment, and strong performance in large, distributed organizations.
CyberArk $CYBR
CyberArk specializes in identity security, with a focus on privileged access management to protect organizations from cyber threats by securing human and machine identities across applications.
It manages, monitors, and restricts who can access critical systems and data. CyberArk’s platform is especially important in large enterprises and government environments, where a breach of administrative access could cause significant damage. It’s at the a core layer of identity security.
Cloudflare $NET
Cloudflare provides content delivery network services, cybersecurity, DDoS protection, and edge computing to help businesses improve the performance, security, and reliability of their websites and applications worldwide.
It runs one of the largest global networks that sits between websites, applications, and users.
As more applications move online and AI tools require fast and secure data access, Cloudflare’s edge network becomes increasingly important. They benefit from both internet traffic growth and the shift from centralized computing to distributed edge computing.
Zscaler $ZS
Zscaler provides a zero-trust platform to securely connect users, devices, and applications anywhere, protecting organizations from cyber threats and data loss.
It enables secure access to applications without requiring a traditional corporate network or VPN. It routes traffic through its cloud security platform, where data and requests are inspected and filtered before reaching internal or external applications.
Lin
Oct 19, 2025
Weekly Market Update: Earnings Season is Here
Although this has been one of the most volatile stretches we’ve seen in a long time, even without counting the wild after-hours and premarket swings, the market still managed to close on a positive note.
The theme of 2025 is green. Every major asset class, including equities, bonds, gold, and crypto, is positive year-to-date. That has not happened since 2019, which shows how broad this year’s rally has been across all markets.
It’s rare for the Fed to ease monetary policy and cut rates amid rising inflation and a melt-up in the equity and credit markets. But for investors, this is pretty great.
This market breadth has not been the only unusual thing.
Despite the current volatility, the S&P 500 has now gone 100 days without a 5% pullback. The historical average is 59 days. It shows how smooth the ride has been over the past three months. But this streak will eventually end.
The main reason for that is simple: persistent buying.
2025 has seen record inflows.
Each month has averaged roughly 3.5 times the usual seasonal pace, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. At this rate, annual inflows could exceed 1.25 trillion dollars, which would be unprecedented.
It has been a while since volatility played a meaningful role.
The VIX just spent six straight days above 20, its longest stretch since May. It even reached 29, the highest reading since April.
One of the reasons for this volatility is options.
On Friday, October 10, the market recorded the largest options trading day in history.
Last week, on Thursday, the S&P 500 closed at an all-time high. On Friday, it dropped more than 2.5%. Historically, quick pullbacks from all-time highs have often led to higher prices over the next 12 months. But the following weeks tend to be even more volatile.
No month has historically produced more 1% up or down days than October.
This year’s volatility fits that pattern perfectly.
On top of that, based on historical patterns, the coming days are typically among the weakest…
Lin
Oct 18, 2025
Platform Update: Version 1.1
Since launch, there have only been a few minor updates to the platform. But I’ve been working hard behind the scenes to make the platform faster, smarter, and more useful.
So, today, I’m really excited to announce Version 1.1! This is the first major upgrade since it went live.
So, here’s everything that’s new:
1. Better Charts
You can now adjust the date range on the charts.
The charts are now fully interactive.
2. Individual Info Pages
To get to the new individual pages, click the small arrow.
This takes you to the page, which now includes a data panel and a more detailed chart.
The special thing about this one is that it has a built-in trend indicator.
When the price moves below the indicator curve, it turns red to signal a downtrend. When the price moves above the curve, it turns green to signal an uptrend.
It’s designed to help you stay on the right side of the trend.
However, it’s not perfect. It works really well in trending markets, but it’s less useful in volatile markets, so treat it as one more tool in your investing toolkit.
You can also now search for companies. The database isn’t complete yet but expanding soon.
You can test it here.
I’m also working on several new features that will be coming very soon.
Here’s a quick sneak peek:
Coming Soon
3. Financial Data: Soon, you’ll find more detailed data on each stock page, including revenue, profit, and margin insights to make fundamental analysis easier.
4. Market Dashboard: I’m building a market dashboard that brings everything together at a glance: heatmaps, key market movers, sentiment, exposure levels, and the overall market state.
Lin
Oct 17, 2025
Market Update: Volatility is Back
The market has had an incredible run since the April lows, climbing almost in a straight line for months. It’s been one of the strongest and most rewarding stretches for investors in years.
Momentum has been powerful. Many stocks, especially in tech and growth, have risen dramatically. Some of the hottest names have risen 50% or even doubled within weeks, and fortunately, we’ve had a few of those in the portfolio. But there’s been a lot of euphoria recently and that kind of pace is not sustainable.
Markets never move in one direction forever. We haven’t seen a real correction in quite some time, and after such a long advance, a pause or pullback is both normal and healthy.
That time may be near. Even if it doesn’t turn into a major correction, volatility is likely to stay elevated for a while. That usually means large swings in both directions, with strong rallies followed by sharp drops. It’s an exhausting environment that often causes investors to second-guess themselves and make impulsive decisions. It typically indicates underlying nervousness combined with emotional overreaction.
Hence, these are the periods to avoid if possible. Even though I was expecting volatility I didn’t expect this much.
This doesn’t mean it’s time to sell everything or short the market. This bull market is far from over. But it might be wise to take a few chips off the table, lock in some profits, reduce weaker positions, and slightly reduce exposure. This isn’t about perfectly timing the market. That’s impossible. It’s about managing risk.
De-risking the portfolio after a strong rally helps limit drawdowns, smooth out volatility, and be able to take advantage of new opportunities. Because momentum or growth names can easily drop 20%, 30%, or even 40% when the market corrects by just 5% to 8%.
Hence, I’ve reduced my exposure a bit to adjust to current market conditions. The environment is a lot less predictable, and I’d rather stay flexible as things evolve. I’ll share more details in the upcoming weekly market update.